A retrospective on four previous Republican-driven tax-cut packages found that the results always come up short compared to bullish predictions of economic booms and lower deficits.
The senior Republican senator was adamant that the tax cuts his party was embracing would pay for themselves and bring the government closer to a balanced budget by spurring growth that would produce a gusher of revenue.
“We will never balance the federal budget until we make tax cuts that will generate more rapid economic growth in the years ahead,” he declared. “It is this faster-growing economy that will in itself bring in more revenue and will bring the budget into balance.”
That wasn’t a current Republican lawmaker making the case for the tax cuts President Trump and his party hope to enact by the Fourth of July — though it could have been. It was former Senator Charles H. Percy, Republican of Illinois, arguing for President Ronald Reagan’s tax cuts in 1981, one of four such packages pushed through over the last four decades by G.O.P. administrations pursuing an aggressive tax-cutting agenda.
The arguments have remained fixed: Tax cuts will stimulate growth, pay for themselves and benefit all Americans. But a retrospective by a nonpartisan, nonprofit organization made up of former top congressional aides found that the previous tax cut measures — in 1981, 2001, 2003 and 2017 — did exactly none of those things, falling short of the claims made beforehand.
“This record reveals a consistent pattern,” said the report, which was released this month by the group Co-Equal. “The tax cuts did not deliver on the promises of their advocates. In fact, they often achieved exactly the opposite, worsening the debt and exacerbating income inequality.”
The potential consequences of the sweeping tax cut and domestic policy bill making its way through Congress are at the heart of the escalating fight over the legislation, as Republicans, urged by Mr. Trump, try to deliver Senate approval in the coming days.
