Oil Prices Drop, but Iran-Israel Conflict Raises Many Risks

The intense rounds of air attacks between Israel and Iran has analysts and traders poring over scenarios for the direction of energy markets.

A wide range of outcomes are possible, with prices in the most extreme cases soaring above $120 a barrel, analysts at Deutsche Bank wrote in a note, but also drifting down to $50 a barrel next year.

The initial round of Israeli attacks sent oil prices 7 percent higher on Friday. Still, at about $74 a barrel, Brent crude remains below the $80 average for 2024, the Deutsche Bank analysts wrote. The market continued to waver, though, and by Monday, oil prices had fallen about 3 percent.

Such relatively modest levels may seem surprising with fighting raging in a region that produces around 25 million barrels a day, according to Rystad Energy, a consulting firm.

The conflict is also flaring up at a crucial time for oil markets with the start of the summer driving season, when demand rises.