Through revolution and upheaval, the program has become intertwined with the country’s security and national identity.
President Trump declared a “spectacular military success,” saying that American bombs had knocked out key pillars of Iran’s nuclear program. Even if he is right, the operation may not have delivered a death blow to a program that is deeply embedded in Iran’s history, culture, sense of security, and national identity.
Since Iran first embarked on an ambitious civilian nuclear program in 1974 under the shah, Mohammed Reza Pahlavi, Iran’s leaders have viewed it as a proud symbol of the country’s leadership in the Muslim world, a reflection of its commitment to scientific research, and an insurance policy in its dangerous neighborhood.
What was true under the shah has been true under the theocratic rulers of post-revolution Iran. And it would be true, several experts on Iran said, of any potential future Iranian government, even if the current supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, does not survive an escalating conflict with Israel and the United States.
“In the short term, under immense pressure, Khamenei or his successors will have to make concessions,” said Roham Alvandi, director of the Iranian History Initiative at the London School of Economics. “In the long run, any Iranian leader will come to the conclusion that Iran must have a nuclear deterrent.”
By joining Israel’s military campaign against Iran, Mr. Trump has greatly raised the costs for Iran’s leaders in refusing to accept stringent curbs on their uranium enrichment program. Yet however this conflict ends, he may have given them even more compelling reasons to seek a nuclear deterrent, experts say.
“Any strategic thinker in Iran, present or future, realizes that Iran is located in the Middle East, that its neighbors are Netanyahu’s Israel, the Taliban in Afghanistan, and M.B.S. in Saudi Arabia,” said Professor Alvandi, referring to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.
