National Review columnist Caroline Downey joins ‘Fox & Friends Weekend’ to analyze the disconnect between voters’ positive personal finances and negative ratings of the broader economy, inflation and key primaries.
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Every election season, politicians suddenly become economists.
They start talking about GDP, inflation rates, job creation, trade deficits and economic growth. They point to charts showing why the economy is doing better or worse depending on which party is holding the microphone.
But there’s one problem. Most Americans don’t live their lives on a government spreadsheet, job reports, GDP data or CPI Index information.
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They live at the grocery store. They live at the gas pump. They live with when the mortgage payment comes out of their checking account. They live with the credit card bill.
American voters might care about the overall economy, but they vote based on their own personal economy. (DjelicS/Getty Images)
And they live it when their kid asks, “Can we afford that?”
In Bill Clinton’s successful 1992 presidential campaign, strategist James Carville famously posted the message, “It’s the economy, stupid,” as a reminder to keep the campaign focused on what mattered to voters.
More than three decades later, I think that famous line needs an update.
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It’s not the economy, stupid. It’s your personal economy that matters. And we will see this front and center as the runaway No. 1 issue in the midterms.
Because when Americans walk into the voting booth, they aren’t carrying a copy of the latest GDP report. They’re carrying around 365 days of financial experience.
Can I afford groceries? Can I afford my house? Can my kid afford a house? Is my paycheck keeping up with my bills? Can I afford health insurance? Can I fill up my SUV without wondering whether I should have bought a bicycle?
Those questions may ultimately matter more politically than any economic statistic Washington can produce.
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Here’s the disconnect politicians often miss and the Republicans may miss as a whole. The economy can look good on paper while your personal economy feels terrible.
The stock market can hit records, but that doesn’t help much when your rent just went up $200 a month.
It’s not the economy, stupid. It’s your personal economy that matters. And we will see this front and center as the runaway No. 1 issue in the midterms.
Unemployment can look relatively low, but that doesn’t make you feel better if you’re worried about losing your job.
Inflation can cool, but “cooling inflation” doesn’t mean prices went back down. It means they’re generally rising more slowly.
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Try explaining that distinction to somebody staring at a $250 grocery bill.
And this is where politicians in both parties make a huge mistake.
You don’t get to tell people how their wallet feels.
You can tell Americans inflation is improving. You can tell them wages are growing. You can tell them the stock market is booming. You can put an economist on television with 17 charts explaining why Americans should feel better.
Democratic strategist James Carville sharply criticized far-left Democrats for targeting longtime incumbents in primary elections, arguing the party is focused on defeating fellow Democrats instead of Republicans, in a video posted for Politicon. (Politicon/YouTube)
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But if a family has $200 less left over at the end of every month, their personal economy isn’t improving. And that is exactly what matters to voters.
If a first-time homebuyer can’t afford the monthly payment on a starter home, their personal economy isn’t working. If filling the family SUV, buying groceries and paying the electric bill takes a bigger bite out of the paycheck, no government statistic is going to convince that family they’re financially thriving.
You don’t get to tell people how their wallet feels. Their bank account already did that.
Housing may be the ultimate example.
For many young Americans, the question isn’t whether they can negotiate another quarter-point off their mortgage rate. It’s whether homeownership is becoming financially impossible altogether. I have three kids in their 20s who all have good jobs and are wondering how they can afford their first homes.
That’s your personal economy.
Then there’s gasoline. Politicians can debate why gas prices rise. Including war, oil markets, geopolitics, refinery capacity, regulation, taxes or supply disruptions. The person standing at Pump No. 7 doesn’t care one iota about the political PowerPoint.
They see the number spinning at the tank.
$40.
$60.
$80.
That number is the economy to them. What do my eyes tell me?
This is why politicians heading into election season should be very careful about telling Americans how good or how bad the economy is right now. Republicans can point fingers at Democrats. Democrats can point fingers at Republicans. Both sides will cherry-pick statistics that make their economic record look better.
But voters will perform a much simpler calculation:
The stock market can hit records, but that doesn’t help much when your rent just went up $200 a month.
Am I financially better off right now than I was two years ago? Do I have more breathing room than I did a few years ago? Can my paycheck buy more or less? Do I feel like I’m getting ahead or falling behind?
That’s the economic report card that ultimately matters.
Elections may be fought over immigration, foreign policy, taxes, abortion, crime and dozens of other deeply important issues. But money has a funny way of cutting through political noise. Because you can turn off a campaign commercial. You can scroll past a political argument on social media.
You can even ignore Washington entirely. But you can’t ignore your mortgage payment. You can’t unsubscribe from the grocery store. And eventually, you have to fill up the car.
Carville was onto something in 1992. But in 2026, I’d change the message.
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It’s not the economy, stupid. It’s your personal economy that matters most.
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And Washington would be wise to remember one simple rule: You don’t get to tell Americans how their wallet feels.
